Ya Poilievre has slim chances the next go round. I talked to some Conservative friends today who were bitching about Carney. The consensus was that while they liked Pierre, he turns too many people off.
Normally what happens in an election when Liberal voters dislike the party direction is they stay home. This is what Conservatives need to happen to win, since the populace is just sadly majority Liberal minded.
Unfortunately, they dislike Pierre so much that they are motivated to go vote against him.
I'm not saying the Conservative leader needs to become more Liberal to win. Peope are so dumb that it's actually just a feeling/image thing. You could have someone more Conservative than Pierre that could win if people didn't dislike the guy. It's not right or based on legitimate concerns, it's all just dumb Canadians and their irrational feelings.
Harper was more successful because he was seen as boring and harmless. When the Liberals ran garbage candidates like Ignatieff or Dion, it was easier for Liberal voters to just stay home and let the the boring guy win. Worked fine until 0 brain cells Justin Trudeau came in with the name brand and hair that got Liberal voters off the couch. And the cycle repeats.