Today, Western separatist sentiments, both in Alberta
and increasingly in Saskatchewan, are running at an all-time high, with observers saying they have surpassed their previous peak in the 1980s.
While most polls put support for separation at around 20 per cent of Alberta’s population, others have pegged it higher: A Pollara Strategic Insights
survey last month found 27 per cent of respondents in favour of an independent Alberta. Crucially, another 15 per cent said they would vote “yes” to send a message to Ottawa. As the 2016 Brexit vote in the United Kingdom and the 1995 Quebec referendum result have shown, however, seemingly small minorities can quickly become majorities when galvanized under a charismatic leader or major historical event.
“Even 20 per cent is double what it was 20 years ago,” said Ted Morton, a former Alberta energy minister and early supporter of the federal Reform Party. “If we continue to be just a piggy bank for the Liberal Party, support for leaving will continue to go up.”
That lack of consideration has, in the eyes of separatist supporters, let Ottawa continue to reap the economic benefits of Alberta’s natural resources while neglecting to hear its voice.
In the more than a century since the province of Buffalo was split down the middle, Alberta in particular has become an economic powerhouse.
Its economic productivity (or, its GDP output on a per-person basis), has continued to outpace all other provinces, creating a major boon for the federal economy at a time when Canada is elsewhere plummeting into a genuine productivity crisis. As the U.S.-Iran war sends oil prices through the roof, a boom in Alberta’s royalties will likely see it sending an uncommonly high amount of cash to Ottawa, covering the bill for the economic laggards in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
For Alberta separatists, that’s as clear a sign as any that the economy of the early 1900s no longer aligns with the realities of today.
“You can understand why they didn’t respect the West,” Morgan said. “It was only about three or four per cent of the national population. But things have changed, and that comes full circle to my frustration. We’re still working under a system that, in a lot of respects, reflects the values of 100-some years ago, when it was founded, rather than the much different dynamic today.”
