A new poll suggests that while Alberta’s independence movement may be picking up steam and has a committed base, it still falls well short of gaining majority support.
Albertans were asked, “If a referendum were held today on whether Alberta should become an independent country, how would you vote?”
According to a survey conducted by Mainstreet Research, 34% of Albertans said they would back independence, compared to 66% who wished to remain part of Canada.
The question struck a clear partisan chord.
Sixty-two per cent of Premier Danielle Smith’s voters said they would support Alberta independence, as did 72.6% of those who indicated their federal vote would go to Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
Only 1.5% of NDP voters said they would vote for independence, while none of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s supporters who were polled expressed support for independence.
Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, said that while the numbers reflect where Alberta sits right now, he cautioned that context matters.
“I don’t think the incentive is what some might perceive,” Maggi said when asked about one of the poll’s more surprising findings — that support for independence actually dropped under a scenario involving closer economic ties with the United States.
When respondents were asked whether they would support independence if the US promised an economic union with Alberta, including a one-to-one exchange rate between Canadian and US dollars, support fell to 32%, while 68% said they would remain in Canada.
Although one might assume that parity with the US dollar would be attractive to voters, Maggi said the timing is not opportune.
“Canadians are not historically particularly patriotic — certainly not in the same vein as Americans,” Maggi said.
“Since Donald Trump has taken office, patriotism and national pride are at a historic high. Although you would think that an economic union with the United States, with the dollar at one-to-one, would be a positive, it’s actually a lower number than just a flat independence question.”
Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), also echoed that sentiment.
“[People] don’t want any affiliation with the US,” Sylvestre told the Western Standard when asked why support dipped under the American dollar-for-dollar scenario.
He suggested many Canadians remain wary of the American government, even if he personally believes those fears are overstated.
“I think there’s a lot of Albertans — Canadians — who are scared of the American government, and I think that’s all there is to it,” he said, adding that he believed Albertans should be more concerned with the political decisions that come out of Ottawa instead of Washington, D.C.
Dr. Barry Cooper, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, also argued that the current numbers may not hold.
“[These] numbers will change over the next six months,” Cooper said.
“Canada has shown that they have absolutely no intention of negotiating anything of substance with Alberta.”
He also suggested Premier Danielle Smith is giving Ottawa “a little extra rope to hang themselves.”
The survey also revealed stark demographic divides.
Support for independence is strongest among voters aged 35 to 49, where 47.2% say they would vote for sovereignty — the only age group approaching parity.
By contrast, just 21.2% of seniors aged 65 and over support independence, while nearly 79% favour staying in Canada.
Younger voters aged 18 to 34 also lean decisively toward Confederation, with 69% opposed to sovereignty.
