Canadians support Mark Carney’s approach to managing the economy, even though he’s presided over the worst first year of growth for a prime minister since at least 1963.
A Nanos Research Group poll for Bloomberg News shows 60% of Canadians think Carney has done a very good or good job of handling the economy. That compares with 24% who think he’s done a poor or very poor job.
Another 14% rate his performance as average, and 2% were unsure.
The results are a robust endorsement of Carney’s economic stewardship. That’s despite the fact that since he was elected, real gross domestic product has shrunk by 0.05% — the worst debut for a Canadian prime minister in at least 63 years.
Growth was 1.4% during Stephen Harper’s first year as leader in 2006-07, while Justin Trudeau oversaw 1.7% in 2015-16.
Carney maintained his predecessor’s tighter immigration policies, which have sharply slowed non-permanent resident arrivals and dampened growth. He also entered office as trade tensions with the US — Canada’s largest export market — intensified.
Consumer spending and the housing market are weakened. US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats are weighing on business investment and have crimped many non-energy exports.
Combined, that’s meant back-to-back quarterly contractions in gross domestic product, a characteristic of a recession, though most economists and the
Bank of Canada have dismissed that label for now.
Amid that challenging backdrop, the polling data suggest Canadians are blaming global factors for the country’s economic woes rather than Carney himself.
“The uncertainty in the Canada—US relationship — largely driven by Trump’s negotiation strategy — has likely diverted attention from the Carney government to the Trump administration,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at the polling firm.
“At this time they’re getting a pass on the state of Canada’s finances and stewardship of the economy.”
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has attacked Carney’s economic record, calling him “badly educated” in economics. He argues that despite degrees from Harvard University and the University of Oxford and experience leading two central banks, Carney has been wrong on major issues such as post-pandemic inflation. Poilievre has also criticized the pace of government action on approving major resource projects.
The survey suggests his criticisms are not resonating with most Canadians.
At the same time, a slower economy has also brought some affordability relief that may be helping Carney politically.
Weaker-than-potential growth means less demand-driven inflation pressure, and the yearly change in the consumer price index has hovered near the central bank’s 2% target for most of Carney’s tenure, excluding the recent spike caused by rising global energy prices.
Housing prices and rents are falling. Slowing population growth has meant rising
output per person, reversing a multi-year stagnation in that important indicator of living standards. The job market is soft, but it’s not worsening.
The federal government has also been able to run
deeper deficitsand boost fiscal spending amid the sluggishness, something that would have been much more difficult in a hotter economy.
Carney’s ambitious investment agenda and push to
build major projects is a long-term economic play — one that could be derailed if the economy overheats and generates inflation, further worsening already acute affordability pressures.
“This government’s been in the process of laying the foundations for a stronger, more resilient, more independent Canadian economy,” Carney
said last month. “As we do all that, the data is going to be uneven.”
