National data reinforce the sense of caution. According to the
Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), there were about 133,495 properties listed for sale on Canadian MLS Systems at the end of December 2025 — up roughly 7.4 per cent from a year earlier — and inventory stood at about 4.5 months, near long-term balanced levels.
CREA’s MLS Home Price Index showed the national average selling price at about $673,335 in December 2025, essentially flat year-over-year (-0.1 per cent), as some regions saw declines and others modest gains.
Not all regions are feeling the same chill. TD Economics points to several markets that continued to post price gains in 2025, including Saskatchewan, where average home prices rose nine per cent, and Newfoundland and Labrador, which recorded near double-digit growth for a second straight year.
Quebec also stood out, particularly Quebec City, where prices jumped roughly 17 per cent in 2025, according to TD, as high consumer confidence and a tight ownership market supported gains even as larger markets cooled.
Further north of Toronto, in Barrie, Ont., Peggy Hill of the Peggy Hill Real Estate Team sees a different but related version of the same freeze. “We haven’t really seen that in about three years … seasonality has kind of gone out the window with so much uncertainty,” she said.
While buyers from the GTA are still moving to Barrie, affordability remains the key driver. Even so, hesitation remains widespread. Hill said last year’s rate cuts did little to change behaviour because broader fears dominate decision-making. “I don’t think there’s ever been a time when there’s been more uncertainty in the world, and it’s affecting people’s psyche.”
Sellers in Barrie are also struggling to align expectations with market realities. Many list at prices tied to past peaks, receive limited showings and pull their properties off the market. Downsizers in particular are pausing when the equity freed up does not justify the costs of moving.
Hill said financial pressure is becoming more visible. Some homeowners renewing mortgages are turning to second mortgages or private lenders as equity cushions shrink — a sign that household balance sheets are tighter than headline prices alone imply. At the same time, renting out a property is less of a fallback than during the pandemic, as softer rents make it harder to cover carrying costs.
Ottawa presents a comparatively steadier picture, though not immune to broader sentiment. Kevin Cosgrove, a realtor in the capital, described the local market as predictable rather than distressed. “This feels less like a market driven by urgency and more one driven by confidence, and that’s generally a healthier place to be,” he said.
Buyers in Ottawa have been cautious but are gradually returning as interest rates and pricing feel more stable. Condo supply remains elevated relative to demand, though Cosgrove noted that return-to-office policies could support demand for centrally located units.
Even there, however, confidence is vulnerable to events beyond housing. Trade tensions, global politics and economic headlines can quickly cool momentum. “Buyer confidence basically controls everything in our market,” he said.
Looking beyond local boards, industry forecasts point to only modest improvement. CREA’s 2026 forecast calls for national home sales to increase to roughly 494,512 transactions — up about 5.1 per cent from 2025 — but notes that uncertainty remains a key restraint on stronger activity.
Across these regions, the common thread is that transactions are still happening, but for different reasons than in boom years. Buyers hold more leverage but feel little urgency. Sellers are adjusting, often reluctantly. Investors are largely on the sidelines. And many households are navigating tighter finances than headline price trends alone suggest.
